How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.

However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.