The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.
For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.
I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player
Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.
So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.
Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.
But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.
Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.
Sign up to The Spin
It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.
The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.
Lena is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.